. . . . . entries for 20.7.09 . . . . .

This post is going to be a more vitriolic, open version of the likely conclusion to my (long, term paper-like) biofuel memo.

Chairman Peterson's amendment to Waxman-Markey included a moratorium on indirect land use change's (ILUC) inclusion in life-cycle emission calculations for biofuels. This amounts to saying that, for at least six years, we will assume a zero value for ILUC emissions.

Let's do a thought experiment. Say there really will be no further land conversion from natural or “marginal” areas due to increasing biofuel production – say the value really were zero. What then?

I may be misremembering (har har, misremembering certainly won't appear in my final memo), but I believe that the original ethanol mandate - not including EISA 2007's ratcheting-up of "advanced" fuel quotas - would have required, at its peak, the entire quantity of the present-day national corn crop to be converted into ethanol, to supply a significant but not enormous amount of the nation's liquid fuel market. That is a lot of corn going into ethanol plants instead of human and livestock bellies. Overall, assuming that increasing yields due to (dubious) biotech probably won’t keep up with rising populations and the expansion of the global meat-eating middle class, global food production rates of increase would (maybe, if we're lucky) slow, (probably) stagnate, or (at worst) plummet. Prices would skyrocket, exacerbating hunger amongst the world’s poorest - like in 2007 and 2008, but forever, ongoing, without a tsunami or a bad storm season to help explain the starvation away.

Now, that paragraph is full of what-ifs and assumptions and verbally imagined wide error bars. But those error bars do not contain a goddamn zero value.

Is this vision what ethanol producers are willing to accept as reality? Does their much beloved zero value really permit them, ethically, to do what they do?

[] . . . ees @ 12:06:00 PM
Comments:
I've always had a bit of a problem with the ethanol solution. Sure, it may reduce oil dependence, but by using corn for energy, it turns an already huge crop into an even more demanded resource, driving up prices. Corn is used in so many food products (look at high-fructose corn syrup), which drives up food prices now that more corn is diverted to energy purposes, and other such stuff.
 
Erin! It's Qi! FRIEND ME ON BLOGSPOT! :D

BTW, just making sure, you're against the amendment, right?
 
There is no "for" or "against," Qi. It's in the bill, and the bill passed in the House. I am quite certain there will be no "backsliding" in the Senate, because ag interests are way stronger in that chamber. There's some good stuff in the amendment - lots of incentives to take up organic farming practices, for example - but the moratorium is . . . questionable. Along with some other stuff. But like I said, it's kind of a moot point. So long as the bill doesn't get completely washed out of any merit in the Senate, I'll be behind it. It's a start.

And Greg: oh boy. Yeah, I've been very deeply preoccupied with such things for at least a year and a half now, and suspicious of ethanol for a longer time than that. I've done a fair bit of research on it at this point, and . . . well, the whole damned food/fuel system is fucked up.

There is not so much high-fructose corn syrup in foods outside our country, because other countries don't pay farmers so much to grow corn. One of my coworkers from Australia has remarked that everything in the States tastes sweet. We're very used to having a lot of cheap, unhealthy food around because of Farm Bill subsidies, which are outdated, an economic abomination, a medical disaster, an environmental travesty, and very, very securely in place thanks to farm and food manufacturing lobbies.

It's a tough life. Pray for a soda tax. o.O
 
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